Jan 23 - Sea to Sky Snow Conditions

Overall theme:

I remember a day when flakes fell from the sky. I don’t remember how long ago it was. Weeks? Years? It feels like a lifetime. Back when the glowing orb of death hid on the horizon like it should. There were clouds! Remember those? Now I hear people saying things like: “wow the rock is dry” or “the trails are in awesome shape” and it horrifies me.

Will we ski pow again? I hope so. 

Maybe soon I’ll wake from this fever dream and it will just have been a long sleep between big days in the mountains. Until then, here’s the situation…

There’s skiing to be found (seriously). While the dry spell we’ve had is unusual, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. The popular zones have had the living snot skied out of them and the skiing there is poor quality at best. If you venture away from existing tracks however, it gets better. Not like good. But better. If you read last week’s newsletter, we gave you the recipe to find good skiing. Get as far north and interior in the zone as possible - that avoids the sun/warm temps affect we’re seeing closer to the Coast. Get out of the trees as soon as possible to avoid the crust but avoid wind-stripped high alpine. Alpine features *at treeline* are key!

Where we’ve been skiing: 

• Sea to Sky Gondola: It’s pretty heavily skied. Tree triangle access is 5.11 skinning or booting in crampons. Once you get above TL, the snow softens up and gets pleasant when you’re away from the tracks. Alpine couloirs are pretty gnarly though the ice is breaking down. The best bet is getting far away from tracks but that’s a big mish. Sky Pilot has been climbed a few times and conditions sound decent. We’ve heard of a few other alpine climbing routes being completed this week and neve climbing conditions are improving. 
• Squamish Valley: Not a ton of tracks but heavily affected by the warm temps last week. If it got hit by wet slides, it’s gnar bar ice.
• Whistler Blackcomb: Also pretty heavily skied - shocking I know. Again, get away from tracks in the far corners and conditions are tolerable. 
• Duffey: This is where we’ve found the best skiing but it’s a big drive. Get away from the main tracks and again, look for those alpine features at treeline! Get away from anything that’s been slurped by wet slides.

What’s happened since the last update (weather & general snowpack structure):

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know it’s been clear and cold for the most part since our last newsletter. This means the snowpack has been steadily faceting from the top down. Crusts that formed on the surface are decomposing. Ski quality has actually improved a bit with these surfaces breaking down.

Very few avalanches have been reported in our area this week. There’s a few old wet slides and notably, several glide cracks have failed on the north side of Duffey Lake in the steep south facing grassy terrain.

What’s the weather and avalanche forecast?

Models are in agreement with another strong upper-level ridge of high pressure building offshore into southern BC through this weekend and into early next week; this will result in a prolonged period of dry conditions with a strong temperature inversion developing over the Sea to Sky alpine later this weekend into next week. Morning fog patches are possible in the valleys.

Long-range forecasts: The models are hinting at a pattern change with the high-pressure ridge breaking down in the middle of next week with the possibility of an organized front arriving towards Thursday or Friday of next week. The models have been hinting at another Arctic front reaching southern BC sometime early next month.

For the next three days we’re expecting light to moderate winds from the NE, no precip, and FLs near 1000m with an inversion beginning over the weekend.

Currently the avalanche forecast is 111 for the foreseeable future with no avalanche problems on the board. While the wind slabs have mostly broken down, crusts in steep features will break apart when skied through and may be stiff enough to knock a skier off their feet in extreme terrain!

If we do see major inversion and warm temps with sun up high, expect to see a Loose Wet problem back on the board and elevated hazard (looking at you Sunday/Monday!). 

What are my questions for the weekend?

• How much are we going to be cooked by the above freezing layers (inversion) coming later in the weekend? And how far north/interior will this hit? I'll be watching the N/E Duffey weather stations to see where it warms up.

What will I watch out for or avoid completely?

• BTL skiing is awful. ALP is still pretty rugged but improving. I’m going to be a bit hesitant about steep/extreme alpine terrain purely due to snow quality. 
• Major solar slopes will be skiing poorly. They’re ice right now and could be an issue if we get a big warm up. Keep to polar slopes!
• Overall, snow quality and travel conditions are a bigger concern than avalanche hazard. Hooking a crust and falling or slipping on ice in slide for life conditions are potentially really serious. I’m dialling back my skiing for these two reasons!

Closing Thoughts:

Hang in there. The Zenith drought support group is here for you. Don’t be tempted to go ice climbing. It’s just not worth it. We’ll get snow again eventually but for now it seems like even the usually optimistic GFS model is holding out on us. I didn’t realize GFS stood for Got no Fucking Snow!

As we get into the weekend, we’ll be looking for the last bits of sheltered skiing available to us and then refocusing on alpine travel. It’s a time to get good views and cruise in the mountains. Big traverses are a possibility (a few Neve Traverse parties have already been successful) but remember the days are still short! 

Since the newsletter is short this week, we have a bit more for you. Our friends over at The High Route website just published this article about the iPhone satellite messaging vs. standalone satellite messengers like Zoleo or InReach. Here’s our two cents:

• iPhone messaging is cool and works reasonably smoothly. It’s a good one for shorter sessions with a lighter pack (trail runs with intermittent service for example). 
• We both use a Zoleo. This is a separate device that can send an SOS without a phone involved.
• iPhone requires you to face a satellite and hold that position while texting. Zoleo can be in the top of the pack, on the dashboard, or on the window of the hut or tent while you hang out inside and text on your phone.
• iPhones are always battery limited. Zoleo lasts more than a day.
• The Zoleo is quite light.

We’re sticking with our Zoleos. I suspect that at some point, satellite messaging will be much more incorporated in the iPhone, but they’re just not there yet. Further, the battery limitation is a big one. For expeditions and even day-to-day use, the Zoleo is superior. For short periods out of service, the iPhone messaging is quite handy!

If you've read this far, forward this to a friend who needs some beta about the ski conditions! The more members in the Zenith drought support group, the more we can spread the word of good skiing! Also of note, we’ll have groups heading out to find some interesting skiing - whether it’s a day of mountain travel (Spearhead Traverse anyone?) or a heli-assist tour, shoot us an email (zenithmountainguides@gmail.com) and we’ll help you make the most of the difficult conditions!

For more information, check out Zenith Mountain Guides and our local avalanche forecast. Weather forecasts are custom from meteorologist Jason Ross. These updates are supported by SkiUphill Squamish - the best stop for ski touring equipment in the Coast Mountains and made possible by the Sea to Sky Gondola! Use this information at your own risk. Conditions change rapidly from when this report was written!